Trump signs bill before May?·YES 72¢NO 28¢ Lakers win NBA title?·YES 18¢NO 82¢ Bitcoin above $100k by June?·YES 61¢NO 39¢ Fed rate cut in May?·YES 34¢NO 66¢ Celtics win 2026 Finals?·YES 29¢NO 71¢ Ethereum above $3k by July?·YES 48¢NO 52¢ Trump signs bill before May?·YES 72¢NO 28¢ Lakers win NBA title?·YES 18¢NO 82¢ Bitcoin above $100k by June?·YES 61¢NO 39¢ Fed rate cut in May?·YES 34¢NO 66¢ Celtics win 2026 Finals?·YES 29¢NO 71¢ Ethereum above $3k by July?·YES 48¢NO 52¢
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Sports
Crypto
Politics
Will Trump sign the Big Beautiful Bill before June 2026?
72¢ · NO 28¢ · Vol $14.2M
▲ +8pts today
AI Analysis
The market jumped 8 points today after Senate leadership confirmed a vote is scheduled for May 12. At 72¢, the market is pricing a high but not certain chance of passage. The main risk is three undecided Republican senators. If they flip to yes, expect this to hit 85¢+. If the vote gets delayed past June, expect a sharp drop to 45¢ range. Current odds look fair — only bet YES if you have information about those three senators.
↑ Senate vote confirmed ↓ 3 senators undecided ~ June deadline tight
Politics
Will the Fed cut rates at the May 2026 meeting?
34¢ · NO 66¢ · Vol $8.7M
▼ -5pts today
AI Analysis
Dropped 5 points after this morning's CPI data came in hotter than expected at 3.4%. The Fed has clearly signaled they need two consecutive months of cooling inflation before cutting. With May CPI data not available before the meeting, a cut looks unlikely. At 34¢ this is fairly priced. The real opportunity is watching for June meeting markets — those are likely underpriced if you believe inflation cools by summer.
↓ CPI 3.4% hotter than expected ↓ Fed signaling patience ↑ June cut still possible
Sports
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Championship?
29¢ · NO 71¢ · Vol $6.1M
→ flat today
AI Analysis
Celtics are the #1 seed but the market is pricing heavy competition from OKC and Cleveland. At 29¢ they're fairly valued for a championship favorite in a wide-open field. Key factor: Jayson Tatum's knee, which is listed as day-to-day for the playoffs. If he plays at full strength, this should be 35¢+. The smart play is to wait for his health status to clarify before taking a position either way.
↑ #1 seed, home court ↓ Tatum knee concern ~ OKC strong competition
Sports
Will the 2026 World Cup final be a rematch of 2022?
18¢ · NO 82¢ · Vol $3.4M
▲ +3pts today
AI Analysis
Both Argentina and France need to navigate tough draws to meet in the final again. Argentina is in good form but without peak Messi, their ceiling is lower. France lost Benzema but gained depth. At 18¢, the price reflects the roughly 1-in-5 chance two specific teams make the final — which is mathematically generous. This looks slightly overpriced. Fade this market unless you have strong conviction on both teams' draws.
↓ Messi not at peak ↓ Tough draws for both ~ 18¢ looks overpriced
Crypto
Will Bitcoin close above $100,000 before June 30, 2026?
61¢ · NO 39¢ · Vol $22.4M
▲ +4pts today
AI Analysis
Bitcoin is currently at $87,400 and needs a 15% move in roughly 10 weeks. The market moved up 4 points today on news of a major institutional ETF inflow. Historically, Q2 has been strong for BTC in halving-year cycles. At 61¢, the market is giving you slightly better than 3:2 odds on a move that has happened in 3 of the last 4 similar setups. This looks like one of the better-value markets right now if you're a Bitcoin bull.
↑ ETF inflows surging ↑ Post-halving bullish cycle ~ Needs 15% move in 10wks
Crypto
Will Ethereum flip Bitcoin in market cap by end of 2026?
· NO 93¢ · Vol $1.8M
→ flat today
AI Analysis
ETH would need to roughly 4x relative to Bitcoin in 8 months — an event that has never happened historically. At 7¢, the market is being generous. This is a low-probability longshot that could be interesting as a hedge if you hold a lot of ETH, but as a standalone bet the expected value is negative. Skip this one unless you're specifically hedging an ETH position.
↓ Would need 4x vs BTC ↓ Never happened historically ~ Only valid as hedge

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Latest prediction market news

Stay ahead with the news that moves markets — updated daily.

POLITICS 2 hours ago

Senate vote on Big Beautiful Bill scheduled for May 12

Senate leadership confirmed the vote date pushing Polymarket odds up 8 points to 72¢ YES overnight.

Market impact: ▲ High
View analysis →
CRYPTO 4 hours ago

Bitcoin ETF sees largest single-day inflow of 2026

Institutional buying pushed BTC above $90k and moved prediction market odds for $100k by June from 57¢ to 61¢.

Market impact: ▲ High
View analysis →
SPORTS 6 hours ago

Jayson Tatum listed day-to-day ahead of NBA playoffs

Celtics championship odds dropped 4 points on Polymarket after the injury report. Market now at 29¢ YES.

Market impact: ▼ Medium
View analysis →
POLITICS 8 hours ago

Fed officials signal patience on rate cuts at May meeting

Two Fed governors publicly stated inflation data needs to cool further. May rate cut odds fell from 39¢ to 34¢.

Market impact: ▼ High
View analysis →
CRYPTO 12 hours ago

Ethereum upgrade delayed by 2 weeks say core developers

The delay pushed ETH/BTC flip odds down slightly. Market remains at 7¢ YES — still a long shot by year end.

Market impact: ▼ Low
View analysis →
SPORTS 1 day ago

OKC Thunder sweep first round — title odds jump to 24¢

Dominant performance in round one has OKC emerging as a serious Celtics challenger. Volume on their markets up 340%.

Market impact: ▲ High
View analysis →

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